Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
FanDuel Odds: Buccaneers -4.5, Total 44.5
Prop play: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson over 36.5 receiving yards (-116)
Robinson leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage and has transformed into a modern-day LaDainian Tomlinson with Zac Robinson calling plays. In the Week 1 matchup, Robinson caught six passes for 100 yards. He caught seven passes for 43 yards in the Falcons’ game at Tampa last season. Target share has declined with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, making a receptions total — 4.5 — a far less likely winner.
About Thursday night: Even tied with the Carolina Panthers atop the NFC South, it’s time for the Buccaneers to get serious.
Home teams thrive in the NFL’s Thursday night series, but Atlanta has won two in a row at Raymond James Stadium. With an improved pass rush sparked by rookie James Pearce — thanks to sacks in five consecutive games he shares the team lead with 6.0 — the Falcons go on the attack against Baker Mayfield and a passing game desperate to get healthy for the stretch run.
In two outings since injuring his left shoulder, Mayfield is averaging just 158 passing yards per game and completed a season-low 46.7% (14 of 30) of his passes in last week’s loss to the lowly Saints. The veteran quarterback isn’t using the injury as an excuse, but understands the offense needs to find a rhythm. The Buccaneers are averaging just 15.7 points across their last three games.
“It’s the little things,” Mayfield said of what needs improvement. “Whether it’s me being on time with my footwork, getting the protection aligned, the depths of the routes, it all comes down to executing. It’s not just one thing you can point to, it’s a culmination of things. We’ll get it fixed.”
Bucs wideout Emeka Egbuka started the season with a bang against the Falcons in Week 1 and leads all rookies with six TD catches. As coverage slides his direction, Mayfield could have Mike Evans (collarbone) on the field for the first time in two months to help the passing game exploit the soft spots in the Falcons’ secondary.
The Falcons didn’t mind packing for the short trip to Florida after a beatdown at the hands of the Seahawks in Atlanta last week. The 28-point defeat (37-9) was the worst in Atlanta’s eight-year history of Mercedes-Benz Stadium and largest since 2014.
Tampa Bay loaded the box to stuff the run in Week 1, and Atlanta’s RB tandem combined for 48 rushing yards. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has sustained his performance through his sophomore season with a league-high 1,683 yards from scrimmage. He had six receptions for 100 yards in the Week 1 loss.
